Joint meeting with Manchester Statistical Society at 5.25pm for 5.45pm (The MSS flyer for this meeting)

The Future of Forecasting

Robert Fildes, Lancaster University

Forecasts are a mainstay of our lives. We live by them and sometimes die by them. Organisations pay large sums of money buying forecasts. Yet for many users they have the scientific status of astrology (and may be given even less credence). This presentation will discuss the key issues in scientific forecasting, using evidence from companies, macroeconomists, statisticians and social and technology forecasters. The story is a complex one - in some areas we have a good record. In others, our pretensions far exceed our abilities.

What lessons can we learn - from our successes and our failures? Unfortunately researchers in forecasting have all too often taken the easiest course and neglected to learn from the empirical evidence, preferring the elegant to the effective. What then is the role of forecasting research in this picture?

NB We need to let CIS know who will be coming so please email Liz Mitchelmore or telephone 0161 837 4011 in good time otherwise you will be refused admission!
Cars may be parked in the CIS car park - call at the side lodge for a ticket.

Robert Fildes' Powerpoint presentation