RSS Manchester - February 23rd 2011

Royal Statistical Society
Manchester Local Group

Wednesday 23rd February 2011, 16.00 - 17.00, Room G.107, Alan Turing Building, University of Manchester.
Tea and coffee from 3.30 pm.

Jeremy Oakley (University of Sheffield)
Uncertainty in health economic modelling

Health economic models are regularly used to assess the cost-effectiveness of new treatments. These assessments inform guidelines for healthcare provision issued by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE).

Two sources of uncertainty in such models are uncertainty in model inputs, and uncertainty in model structure. In this talk I will review the role of economic modelling in healthcare decision making and discuss the treatment of both types of uncertainty. Some novel tools for dealing with the more challenging problem of model structure uncertainty will be presented.

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