How to Win Games: Probability Models for Success

David F. Percy, University of Salford

Phil Taylor recently scored a nine-dart 501 finish in a world championship and Tony David made a 170 check-out in a similar tournament.  What are the chances that you or I might achieve these magnificent feats?  Peter Ebdon will soon defend his world snooker title under intense pressure from Stephen Hendry and others.  How do they decide which shots to  play and how could we improve our own games to emulate these  masters?

This light-hearted talk considers the beautiful application of probability models to everyday life, specifically focussing on popular games including those above and the national lottery, which has a huge impact in the UK.  We also look at some puzzling paradoxes and some serious issues where probability is crucial, including a discussion of ongoing miscarriages of justice in society.

(Dave is a senior lecturer at Salford, having gained a BSc in mathematics from Loughborough in 1985 and a PhD in statistics from Liverpool in  1990.  His research and teaching interests are in Bayesian inference, multivariate analysis and stochastic processes, with applications to business, industry, medicine, law, games and defence.  He has travelled extensively to international conferences, is a keen cricketer, enjoys hiking and sailing, and is currently appearing as second irate in the pantomime Peter Pan.  He is also a committee member of the RSS Manchester Local Group)

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