March 12th 2008, 5pm, Room E32, John Dalton
Building, Manchester Metropolitan University, Oxford Road
(opposite BBC). Tea and coffee from 4.30
pm.
TERENCE MILLS (University of
Loughborough)
Forecasting
Compositional Time Series
Compositional data sets occur in many disciplines and give
rise to some interesting statistical considerations. In recent
years, the modelling and forecasting of compositional time
series has seen some important developments, although this
approach does not seem to be widely known. This talk represents
a modest step towards rectifying this. After briefly setting
out the basic structure of compositional data sets and
outlining the implications for forecasting compositional time
series, it illustrates the techniques using three examples:
modelling and forecasting expenditure shares in the U.K.
economy; forecasting trends in obesity in England; and
examining shifts in the proportions of English first class
cricketers born during particular quarters of the year.
|