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| October 15th 2003, 2pm to 5pm at MANDEC (Manchester
Dental Education Centre), Higher Cambridge Street
Joint meeting with
Manchester University's Biostats Group Theme: "Spatial modelling in epidemiology" Modelling of under-detection of cases in disease surveillance TREVOR BAILEY, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Exeter This talk describes modifications to Bayesian small area disease mapping modelswhichincorporate censoring of case detection in suspect districts, thus enabling estimationof the under-reporting of cases in these areas. It is applied to leprosy incidence in Northern Brazil, producing useful targetting information for improvements to the surveillance programme. Spatially varying coefficient models in ecological studies of environment and health NICKY BEST, Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, Imperial College School of Medicine, University of London Random coefficient regression models may be used to capture geographical heterogeneity in the effects of risk factors on disease outcomes when effect modification occurs at an area level. This talk discusses Bayesian models and explores their sensitivity for detecting different patterns of ecological association. Composite Likelihood Cluster Modelling of Small Area Health Data ANDREW B LAWSON, Dept of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, USA This talk covers newer developments in non-focussed cluster analysis in relation to environmental risk assessment, and examines the use of very flexible Bayesian pseudo-likelihood models for clustering without prior knowledge of sources of risk, closely linked to nonparametric approaches to smoothing risks. Simulation studies and data will be presented. |
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